How Much Will My Tesla Model 3 Actually Cost?

I built a tool to let you calculate the cost of your model, including the federal tax credit. See what your Tesla Model 3 will cost here https://teslanomics.co/model3cost

The way this came about was when I had this idea to try and estimate when Tesla will deliver their 200,000th car in the US. To figure this out, I partnered with the team at http://insideevs.com/ who have some excellent data going all the way back to when the Model S was first released back in 2012.

// Check out InsideEvs.com for more great insight

Since then they’ve been meticulously tracking how many EVs Tesla, and others, have sold in the US. If you have any doubt about this data, I suggest you check out their monthly sales scorecard which they regularly update as new information comes out. These guys do their homework, so I feel good about where the data is coming from here

From there it was pretty easy to generate a forecast model that would predict S and X sales for the next 12mo. Because both of these models have been in production for a while, this estimate should be pretty reliable, especially since we have data by month for almost five years now.

On the most recent earnings call Tesla also stated that “Orders for Model S and Model X have also been increasing, both leading up to and following the Model 3 handover event. In July, our weekly net order rate for these vehicles was about 15% higher than our Q2 average weekly order rate. In addition, although too early to draw strong conclusions, we are seeing an even further increase in net Model S orders since the July 28th event. This growing demand gives us even more reason to expect increased deliveries of Model S and Model X in the second half of this year.”

The next piece of the puzzle was to figure out the Model 3 sales for the next six months or so. And, on that same earnings call Tesla had some interesting things to say about this…they said “In addition to the increased orders for Model S and Model X, customer response to Model 3 has been overwhelming. Since the handover event last week, we are averaging over 1,800 net Model 3 reservations per day. We opened the Model 3 configurator to the thousands of our employees with reservations so they could begin ordering their vehicles. Soon, non-employee customers will begin receiving invitations to order their cars in small groups based on when they placed their reservations, with existing Tesla owners receiving first priority. Deliveries to non-employees will begin in Q4.”

Now you can see this as good or bad news…depending on when Tesla is estimating you’ll get your Model 3.

Taking into account those statements and also their estimate that they ” are confident we can produce just over 1,500 vehicles in Q3, and achieve a run rate of 5,000 vehicles per week by the end of 2017” my original delivery ramp is looking pretty good

So when you add up the S and X projections from before with these Model 3 predictions, I have them hitting that 200K mark in late Q4 of this year, which could be a disaster.

The way the tax credit works is once a manufacturer in the US hits the 200K mark the “phase out” begins. All cars produced that quarter and the following receive the full credit, people that take delivery in the next two-quarters get 50% of that, then for the last two quarters of the phase out individuals who take delivery just get 25% of the 7500 credit.

So my guess is that Tesla will push out that 200,000th delivery until early Jan 2018 so they can maximize the tax benefit to us model 3 reservation holders. Elon even tweeted about this when asked and he said “We always try to maximize customer happiness even if that means a revenue shortfall in a quarter. Loyalty begets loyalty.”
So that’s why I’m estimating Tesla will deliver their 200,000th car in the US next January of 2018. This was the inspiration for the calculator.

On the calculator, I wanted to make it more than just some boring numbers so I ended up building a visual version which will let you pick your color, wheels, and upgrades. From there you click “Show Me, ” and a new page opens with the result…On this page, you’ll have a beautiful printable invoice, yet something I hope you still find pleasure in viewing and maybe even printing out to hang on your wall or cube or wherever you spend most of your time.

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I have a new online course just published teaching you Data Science with Python. You can find more at the link below and get a free trial to the entire learning library at https://teslanomics.co/lynda

Those looking to buy a new Model S or X can get on my referral code waitlist at https://teslanomics.co/td

Already this year 20 people have taken advantage of this code and used it to get ,000 off their new Tesla

// Updates
– Python Tips and Tricks (https://www.linkedin.com/learning/python-for-data-science-tips-tricks-techniques/welcome?u=2125562)

// Price Target – https://seekingalpha.com/news/3289019-fresh-analyst-takes-tesla
– Morgan Stanley boosts its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to 7 from 5 on a higher expectation for Model 3 deliveries this year and a raised level of comfort with long-term investments.
– Baird takes his price target on Tesla to 1 from 8. “In our opinion, TSLA isn’t a good short headed into the Model 3 ramp as we continue to believe upcoming catalysts will drive shares higher,”

// Tiny House – https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/14/teslas-tiny-house-hits-the-road-in-australia-to-show-off-solar-power-potential/
– Powerball Sales in Australia

Tesla has a new way to demonstrate the possibilities of its home solar products to potential customers – using a ‘tiny house’ on wheels, which it can tow on a rolling tour with a Tesla Model X. The Tesla Tiny House made its official debut in Australia (via Electrek), where it will welcome visitors at Melbourne’s Federation Square, before taking off for a cross-country Australian tour.

– I pitched a similar idea to Franz at the Model 3 Handover Party here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzP4VAMFBns
– You’re welcome, Tesla

// Tesla Dominating Autonomous Market – http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/why-tesla-will-dominate-the-autonomous-vehicle-market_us_598f4871e4b0caa1687a607c
– Autonomous Vehicles Will Increase Automobile Traffic by 3X in 2030.
– Autonomous Taxis Should Reduce the Cost of Door-to-Door Mobility Radically
– Auto Accident Rates Should Decline By Over 80%
– Tasha Keeny’s articles – https://ark-invest.com/research/author/tasha_keeney

// SHORT – Tesla Sales People Lying about Tax Credit – https://electrek.co/2017/08/11/tesla-model-3-reservation-holders-federal-tax-credit-model-s-upgrade/
– Tesla salespeople are telling Model 3 reservation holders that ,500 federal tax credit runs out in 2017
For example, a Tesla owner advisor wrote in an email to a Model 3 reservation holder in Texas (via thrftshxp):

“The Model 3 is on average pricing around ,000 pre-tax and unless you get delivery this year it doesn’t look like it will have the ,500 Federal Tax Credit.”

The email goes on to push the Model 3 reservation holder toward a Model S 75 instead, which is being described as “the same cost” as a Model 3.

Update: Tesla told Electrek that they do not approve of the email.

– How it works…

// LONG – NorthVolt Battery Plant – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-14/northvolt-starts-biggest-fundraising-for-4-billion-battery-plan
– 32gWh plant
– 4B Euros
– Will rival Gigafatory
– 6yrs out “Fully Operational”

“The company plans to break ground on the first phase of its factory in the second half of 2018 and begin a pre-production line a year later. Carlsson is anticipating to deliver his first battery cells in late 2020.”

// Questions Answered
– With apparently only FM radio built into the Model 3 infotainment system, is it Tesla’s expectations that all other forms of entertainment be streamed? What are the chances of a SiriusXM app or future option?
– Will M3 offer voice activation without touching the display? Something like “OK Tesla” similar to OK Google or Hey Siri? I can’t imagine taking my eyes off the road just to adjust the temp or change music.
– Is it possible to install an aftermarket 1 1/4 inch trailer hitch to the Model 3 or Model s? This is to handle a bike carrier.
Do you expect the white interior on the Model 3 have an upgrade charge?
– “You think that Tesla will reach the 200 000 cars sold in Q4 2017, rather than Q1 2018. With the Model 3 ramp up, wouldn’t Tesla have a super incentive to delay this milestone to the early hours of 2018 so that a max of super patient US customers can benefit from the full federal tax credit? Can they do this?”

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